In the Arctic the drama of abrupt climate change is coming to a head.
It is obvious, that this drama has an impact on the whole planet. But in the public media it is ignored largely. Therefor I have begun to bring up this painful subject and I have published some podcast episodes and blog articles. This is a kind of condensed summary of this work.
A very important foundation we find in the publications of Natalia Shakhova and Igor Simeletov.
1. Breeze and Shakhova
Nick Breeze has conducted an extraordinary interview with Dr. Natalia Shakhova and Dr. Igor Semiletov.
Methane in the Arctic Shelf
There is a big reservoir of Methane stored in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).
Shakhova and Semiletov currently estimate that of the 2,000,000 sq km’s that comprise the ESAS, 200,000 sq km’s (10%) are what they would call hotspots, areas where methane emissions are observed as being far greater than in the lower background area.
Dr. Semiletov added that the 5 billion tonnes of methane that is currently in the Earth’s atmosphere represents about one percent of the frozen methane hydrate store in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Cheers, the champagne bottle is open
The methane bottle is uncorked. There is a layer of permafrost in the subsea sediments, that hinders methane to be released since up to one million years.
We use an analogy where we compare the East Siberian Arctic Shelf to a bottle of champagne. So the gas produces within this bottle and it keeps accumulating as long as the cork serves as an impermeable lid. This lid is subsea permafrost. Before it was just permafrost [on land] but after it was submerged it became subsea permafrost and served to preserve an increasing amount of gas produced from its release to the ocean and atmosphere above. While this lid is impermeable, there is nothing to worry about. But when this lid loses its integrity, this is when we start worrying.
No way to stop
Once the bottle of methane deposits in the subsea sediments is uncorked, there is no way to stop this process, that began „thousands of years ago“.
Emissions that are occurring right now are the result of a combined effect of natural and anthropogenic warming and they will be accelerated until warming is turned to cooling. Even after it happens, there is no mechanism to stop permafrost disintegration in the ESAS besides shelf exposure above the sea level that would serve to freeze the gas migration paths so that they integrate with the permafrost.
2. FTE21 ~ Arctic Sea Ice Volume
The Arctic Sea Ice Volume is 2017 at it’s low. Maybe this sounds somehow special, but what‘s going on in the Arctic now has huge consequences for the climate of the planet.
Finland‘s President Niinistö said in North Russia:
If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World
Torstein Viddal about the dire situation we are in:
Emotionally I think I will always be like – keeping it real. Accepting the situation we are in, is so much easier than denying it, because I suspect, that even the deniers fear what’s inside that box, but they are not looking into.
I have inserted a short introduction from THE Arctic expert in the world, Professor Peter Wadhams, from October 2016.
3. Multi Year Ice
Video from Peter Wadhams:
- 40 years ago nearly all ice in the Arctic was multi-year
- ice was heavy, it was really formidable stuff
- that’s gone
- the one year ice is much thinner, much weaker, much more mobile, it’s a different substance
Paul Beckwith explains in this video of Sept. 2016 how the next storm could push the rest of crushed ice out of the Arctic.
Arctic Sea Ice has been pulverized, hacked to pieces, smashed to smithereens; you can use whatever phrase you want. With a week or two left in the 2016 melt season, and another storm in the long range forecast, all bets are off.
4. FTE23 ~ Methane Monster 3.0
… pingos, which were formed by local accumulation of hydrate (ice) below the sediment surface in the past, and by methane migrating upwards through conduits. Pingos and similar structures can link to deep-rooted plumbing systems that allow thermogenic fluid migration from several-kilometers-deep sedimentary basins.
Paull et al. describe pingo-like-features on the Beaufort Sea Shelf, adding that a thermal pulse of more than 10 degrees Celsius is still propagating down into the submerged sediment and may be decomposing gas hydrate as well as permafrost.
The Keeling Curve
5. FTE24 Arctic ~ Sam Carana about the Arctic and global temperature
And here comes an exclusive interview with Sam Carana!
In my view Sam Carana is one of the leading scientists, who is engaged in the topic of abrupt climate change. But nobody knows who is behind this name, he prefers to remain anonymous.
In this episode of the FasterThanExpected podcast we focus on the question: How is ice melting in the Arctic and methane influencing the global temperature?
+10 C by 2021?
Sam Carana sums up some influences on the global temperature:
In summary, adding up all the warming associated with the above elements results in a total potential global temperature rise (land and ocean) of more than 10°C or 18°F in a matter of years, by as early as 2021, assuming that no geoengineering will take place over the next few years.
6. Guy McPherson: Biology for Doomers
Guy McPherson, with his major fields conservation and evolutionary biology, is the only biologist, I know, who assumes that these changes lead to a mass extinction – even of the human species – within a very short period of time, within a few years.
Guy McPherson, Faster than Expected, 9-Feb-2017:
As I’ve pointed out previously, I doubt there will be a human on Earth by mid-2026. Indeed, I doubt there will be complex life on this planet by then. It’ll be a small world, as was the case in the wake of each of the five prior Mass Extinction events on Earth. Bacteria, fungi, and microbes will dominate.
Habitat, habitat, habitat!
As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, humans will lose habitat on Earth before the last human dies. The final human probably will die after running out of canned food in a bunker. And he or she will not know human extinction has occurred.
Some people are preparing for the collapse of civilization. I used to be one of them. Now I spend my days living, rather than pursuing dying more slowly than expected. … Pressum diem (squeeze the day). Make every one matter. Like all of us, the days are going away faster than expected.
7) Kevin Hester and Dahr Jamail about the ongoing climate disruption
Kevin Hester is discussing with Dahr Jamail a wide range of subjects around the ongoing climate crisis, including the idiocy of building Nuclear plants on coastlines being battered by rising sea levels and ever stronger storms …
Listen to a great Nature Bats Last radio show from 8-Mar-2018:
Is there anything to add?
- More evidence (June 2019): It is Too Late to Prevent Climate Change