Melting Arctic

The most important blog article in July 2016 – plus 10 C by 2026

Sam Carana has summed it up and has come to the conclusion: Total potential global temperature rise by 2026 (10°C or 18°F)

temperature rise by Sam Carana

Arctic News: A Global Temperature Rise Of More than Ten Degrees Celsius By 2026?

 

  • February 2016 rise from 1900 (1.62°C)
  • Rise from pre-industrial levels to 1900 (0.3°C)
  • Rise due to carbon dioxide from 2016 to 2026 (0.5°C)
  • Removal of aerosols masking effect (2.5°C)
  • Albedo changes in the Arctic (1.6°C)
  • Methane eruptions from the seafloor (1.1°C)
  • Extra water vapor feedback (2.1°C)
  • Further feedbacks (0.3°C)
  • Total potential global temperature rise by 2026 (10°C or 18°F)

 

Facebook comment of Sam Carana of July 15, 2016:

This scenario could indeed eventuate even if all energy-related emissions were stopped. That doesn’t imply though that burning fossil fuels should continue, the contrary, it means that comprehensive and effective action is needed, including rapid reductions of energy-related emissions. The ClimatePlan calls for 80% emission cuts by 2020.

 

My comment:

No complex life-form can survive further +8.5 C in 10 years on our planet.

 

Guy McPherson has discussed this in detail: The Politics and Science of Our Demise (Aug 1, 2016)

Taking a conservative approach at every step, I conclude “only” an 8.21-degree rise in temperature by mid-2026. As a result, I conclude global-average temperature at that time will be about 21.7 C (13.5 C + 8.21 C). This is barely below 22 C, the temperature at which Earth has most commonly found itself during the last 2,000,000,000 years. There is no reason to expect Earth to start cooling until the heat engine of civilization is turned off and dozens of self-reinforcing feedback loops are inexplicably reversed.

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2 Comments

  1. Thomas Karlsen

    Hi.I first stumbled over Guy McPherson in 2015.Since then I have followed him and other climate scientists, on a daily basis.My question is:You mention we could have a 1,1degree Celsius average temp.rise,due to methane realise.is that included the methane in the east Siberian sea shelf? As I know, the 5 billion tons of methane currently in our atmosphere,represents only 1% of the totalt amount in Siberia! Well,what if, lets say 10% of that methane would be realised,due to melting of the permafrost? Then we also have methane in Antartica,Canada etc.Another thing I want to know,is the average temperature rise, we will mostly have, if we shut down civilisation,aka,stop,burning fossil fuels.After 9/11,only from airplanes grounded, we saw an 1degree Celsius,temp rise in most US states, so I just assume,industri,is the most pollutionous thing we have on planet earth….isnt then 2,5 degree average temperature rises to small/or very conservative number? Sorry,I am not a scientist, and I understand most of your numbers are conservative,I just think they are low….thanks for your great work by the way! I know the mainstream media,dont cover this very important topic, but I have read many reports on yr.no(weather forecast website from my country Norway)and most of them are alarming! Best regards Thomas from Norway.

    • Wolfgang

      Thomas, thank you for this comment.
      Guy McPherson is talking about +1 C, if 30% of the aerosol masking effect is gone. Having in mind that there are lot’s of feedback mechanisms, that would be way enough to bring us (humans and non human animals) in real trouble.
      Sam Carana now is writing about another +8 C.
      A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
      https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html
      That’s not survivable for any living being on earth.

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