Sam Carana has summed it up and has come to the conclusion: Total potential global temperature rise by 2026 (10°C or 18°F)

temperature rise by Sam Carana

Arctic News: A Global Temperature Rise Of More than Ten Degrees Celsius By 2026?


  • February 2016 rise from 1900 (1.62°C)
  • Rise from pre-industrial levels to 1900 (0.3°C)
  • Rise due to carbon dioxide from 2016 to 2026 (0.5°C)
  • Removal of aerosols masking effect (2.5°C)
  • Albedo changes in the Arctic (1.6°C)
  • Methane eruptions from the seafloor (1.1°C)
  • Extra water vapor feedback (2.1°C)
  • Further feedbacks (0.3°C)
  • Total potential global temperature rise by 2026 (10°C or 18°F)


Facebook comment of Sam Carana of July 15, 2016:

This scenario could indeed eventuate even if all energy-related emissions were stopped. That doesn’t imply though that burning fossil fuels should continue, the contrary, it means that comprehensive and effective action is needed, including rapid reductions of energy-related emissions. The ClimatePlan calls for 80% emission cuts by 2020.


My comment:

No complex life-form can survive further +8.5 C in 10 years on our planet.


Guy McPherson has discussed this in detail: The Politics and Science of Our Demise (Aug 1, 2016)

Taking a conservative approach at every step, I conclude “only” an 8.21-degree rise in temperature by mid-2026. As a result, I conclude global-average temperature at that time will be about 21.7 C (13.5 C + 8.21 C). This is barely below 22 C, the temperature at which Earth has most commonly found itself during the last 2,000,000,000 years. There is no reason to expect Earth to start cooling until the heat engine of civilization is turned off and dozens of self-reinforcing feedback loops are inexplicably reversed.

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